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Muskoka Real Estate | Q1 2026 Statistics for Homes & Cottages
Q1 2026 Market Report
A split picture to open the year. Waterfront cottage sales fell again while residential home sales moved higher. Both segments are dealing with more days on market and more cautious buyers and the tariff uncertainty that arrived in late January hasn't helped either segment.
Waterfront Sales
22
▼ 12% vs Q1 '25
Home Sales
102
▲ 16% vs Q1 '25
Waterfront MOI
17.5
Up from 14.4 in Q1 '25
Housing MOI
5.2
Down from 5.9 in Q1 '25
WF Avg DOM
95
Up from 63 days Q1 '25
Housing Avg DOM
57
Up from 46 days Q1 '25
Two Markets, Two Very Different Stories
The first quarter of 2026 produced one of those splits that makes Muskoka real estate genuinely interesting to analyze. Waterfront cottages continued their prolonged correction with 22 sales in three months. This is down 12% from an already slow Q1 2025, with months of inventory averaging 17.5 and properties sitting for 95 days on average. Meanwhile, the residential housing market moved the other direction: 102 sales, up 16% year-over-year, with tighter inventory and buyers who are still transacting.
What explains the gap? In part it's the nature of the purchase. A Muskoka home under $700,000 is a practical decision. People need to live somewhere and rate cuts help make the math work. A $1.5M waterfront cottage is a discretionary call, often made with surplus capital and confidence about the future. When the economic outlook clouds over as it did sharply in late January and February with the emerging tariff situation many discretionary buyers pause.
This distinction matters because the two market types have been diverging quietly for over a year. Q1 2026 may be the clearest illustration of that gap we've seen in this data set.
Waterfront Cottages
Data covers Muskoka detached waterfront freehold sales. Source: Habistat Analytics, multiple Ontario real estate boards.
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | 25 | 22 | ▼ 12.0% |
| New Listings | 170 | 149 | ▼ 12.4% |
| Avg Months of Inventory | 14.4 | 17.5 | ▲ +3.1 mo |
| Avg Days on Market | 63 | 95 | ▲ +32 days |
| Avg Sale-to-List Ratio | 97.6% | 94.0% | ▼ 3.6 pts |
| Rolling 12-mo MOI | 8.9 | 11.0 | ▲ +2.1 mo |
| Rolling 12-mo Terminations | 113 | 307 | ▲ +172% |
Waterfront: Monthly Sales & New Listings
Q1 2026 highlighted. Bars = sales, line = new listings.
Waterfront: 12-Month Rolling MOI
Rolling 12-month average. Above 6 = buyer's market.
Waterfront: Monthly Days on Market & Sale-to-List Ratio
Left axis: average DOM (bars). Right axis: SP/LP ratio (line). Q1 2026 highlighted.
What the Numbers Are Saying
Twenty-two sales in a quarter where the seasonal norm is already low is still a very slow number. The more telling figure is the 12-month rolling MOI hitting 11.0 — the highest point in this data set, and still climbing. At 11 months of supply, buyers aren't competing with each other. They're taking their time, seeing multiple properties, and negotiating. The SP/LP ratio of 94% in Q1 confirms that sellers who are transacting are generally doing so at a meaningful discount to list.The exception to this are cottages with a price that reflets the current market.These are still moving in a reasonable amount of time
The jump in average days on market from 63 to 95 days year-over-year is significant. February 2026 averaged 122 days, over four months from list to sale. Properties sitting that long accumulate a stigma that compounds the problem. Buyers see the days counter and wonder what's wrong. In many cases nothing is wrong other than the price, but it creates friction regardless.
The rolling termination count of 307 deserves its own paragraph. Prior to 2024 the rolling annual figure was consistently under 25. We went from a market where almost everything listed eventually sold, to one where a very large share of listings are being pulled without transacting. That inventory doesn't disappear, it waits, and it comes back as relists in subsequent quarters it adds to the perceived supply overhang.
The tariff uncertainty that emerged in late January 2026 is worth naming specifically. In prior reports we've noted that cottage buying is confidence-driven. When economic visibility shrinks, and it shrank sharply in late January and through February, discretionary buyers don't move. The data suggests that dynamic was at work in Q1, and it hasn't fully resolved heading into Q2. This is the factor I'm watching most closely as we move into the spring selling season.
Residential Housing
Data covers Muskoka detached non-waterfront residential sales. Source: Habistat Analytics, multiple Ontario real estate boards.
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | 88 | 102 | ▲ +15.9% |
| New Listings | 250 | 250 | Flat |
| Avg Months of Inventory | 5.9 | 5.2 | ▼ –0.7 mo |
| Avg Days on Market | 46 | 57 | ▲ +11 days |
| Avg Sale-to-List Ratio | 97.2% | 95.8% | ▼ 1.4 pts |
| Avg Median Sale Price | $689,500 | $601,133 | ▼ 12.8% |
| Rolling 12-mo Sales | 621 | 664 | ▲ +6.9% |
| Rolling 12-mo Terminations | 217 | 473 | ▲ +118% |
Housing: Monthly Sales & New Listings
Q1 2026 highlighted in teal.
Housing: Monthly Median Sale Price
Monthly median. Q1 2026 highlighted.
Reading the Housing Data Carefully
The 16% sales increase in Q1 housing is the headline number, and it's real with 102 sales versus 88 which is a meaningful move. But a few things temper the optimism. Days on market climbed from 46 to 57 days year-over-year. The SP/LP ratio softened from 97.2% to 95.8%. And the median sale price dropped significantly — $601,133 in Q1 2026 versus $689,500 in Q1 2025, a decline of about 13%.
Some of that price decline reflects composition — what mix of properties closed in Q1. It doesn't necessarily mean any individual home lost 13% of its value. But it does suggest that the properties trading in Q1 2026 were generally at lower price points than a year ago, which is consistent with a market where affordability is driving decisions more than aspiration.
The termination count in housing is also alarming when viewed over the rolling 12 months: 473 versus 217 a year prior. As with the waterfront data, a large volume of listings are failing to sell and being withdrawn. This is partly a pricing problem with sellers listing above where the market will support and partly a confidence problem on the buyer side.
Muskoka's residential market is being supported by buyers who are moving to the region permanently or semi-permanently, people for whom the purchase decision is driven by lifestyle and necessity rather than pure discretion. That's a meaningfully different buyer than the seasonal cottage purchaser, and it explains why the two segments are performing so differently right now. Rate cuts from the Bank of Canada over the past 18 months have made entry-level Muskoka housing genuinely more accessible for this group.
Rolling 12-Month Sales — Waterfront vs Residential
Plotting both segments on a rolling 12-month basis makes the divergence clear. Residential sales have held up and are now moving higher. Waterfront sales have been essentially flat to declining since 2024.
Rolling 12-Month Sales: Waterfront vs Residential (Dec 2023 – Mar 2026)
Each point = rolling 12-month total sales. Waterfront left axis (smaller scale), Residential right axis.
Heading Into Q2
The spring selling season for Muskoka waterfront typically lifts off around the May long weekend. Between now and then, a few things will determine how 2026 plays out for both segments.
For waterfront, the central question is whether the tariff situation resolves enough for discretionary buyers to re-engage. If it does, the inventory is there, the sellers are increasingly motivated, and some genuinely good properties have been sitting long enough that negotiation is possible. If the uncertainty compounds like more talk of recession or more volatility in equity markets, the Q1 pattern of hesitation is likely to continue into Q2.
For residential housing, the picture is more constructive. Sales are up, inventory is tighter than it was a year ago, and the buyers who are active are transacting. The main watch point here is the SP/LP erosion and the median price softening. If those continue, it suggests the market is still in a price-discovery phase where sellers haven't fully caught up to where buyers are willing to transact.
In both segments, pricing from day one matters more than it has in years. The data on terminations makes this point forcefully. Listings that start too high, sit, and then get withdrawn aren't just wasted time, they come back with a handicap, carrying the days-on-market history that triggers buyer skepticism. The sellers who price realistically from the start are the ones closing deals. That hasn't changed.
Previous Market Reports
Muskoka Cottage Market — 2025 Review & 2026 Forecast
Quarterly ReportMuskoka Real Estate — Q3 2025 Report
Quarterly ReportMuskoka Real Estate — Q2 2025 Market Statistics
Quarterly ReportMuskoka & Parry Sound — Q1 2025 Market Update
Annual OutlookMuskoka Real Estate — 2025 Market Outlook for Cottages & Homes
Live ToolOntario Cottage Market Forecaster™ — Real-Time Signals
Waterfront data covers Muskoka detached waterfront freehold sale transactions. Residential data covers Muskoka detached non-waterfront freehold sales. Both datasets compiled by Habistat Analytics from multiple Ontario real estate boards. Transaction volumes in Q1 are seasonally low; monthly price figures should be interpreted cautiously given the small sample sizes involved. The 12-month rolling figures provide a more reliable directional signal. Termination counts cover MLS terminations and do not capture private withdrawals. Questions: [email protected] | 705.783.7718
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