Market
Market
Muskoka Real Estate | Q1 2026 Statistics for Homes & Cottages

Q1 2026
Market Report
A split picture to open the year. Waterfront cottage sales fell again while residential home sales moved higher. Both segments are seeing more cautious buyers and the tariff uncertainty that arrived in late January hasn’t helped.
Two Markets, Two Very Different Stories
The first quarter of 2026 produced one of those splits that makes Muskoka real estate genuinely interesting to analyze. Waterfront cottages continued their prolonged correction with just 22 sales in three months — down 12% from an already slow Q1 2025, with months of inventory averaging 17.5 and properties sitting for 95 days on average.
Meanwhile, the residential housing market moved the other direction: 102 sales, up 16% year-over-year, with tighter inventory and buyers who are still transacting.
What explains the gap? A Muskoka home under $700,000 is a practical decision. People need to live somewhere and rate cuts help make the math work. A $1.5M waterfront cottage is a discretionary call, made with surplus capital and confidence about the future. When the economic outlook clouds over — as it did sharply in late January with the tariff situation — many discretionary buyers pause.
Waterfront Cottages
Data covers Muskoka detached waterfront freehold sales. Source: Habistat Analytics, multiple Ontario real estate boards.
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | 25 | 22 | ▼ 12.0% |
| New Listings | 170 | 149 | ▼ 12.4% |
| Avg Months of Inventory | 14.4 | 17.5 | ▲ +3.1 mo |
| Avg Days on Market | 63 | 95 | ▲ +32 days |
| Avg Sale-to-List Ratio | 97.6% | 94.0% | ▼ 3.6 pts |
| Rolling 12-mo MOI | 8.9 | 11.0 | ▲ +2.1 mo |
| Rolling 12-mo Terminations | 113 | 307 | ▲ +172% |
Q1 Monthly Sales & Listings
12-Month Rolling MOI
Q1 Days on Market vs Sale-to-List Ratio
What the Numbers Are Saying
Twenty-two sales in a quarter where the seasonal norm is already low is still a very slow number. The more telling figure is the 12-month rolling MOI hitting 11.0 — the highest point in this dataset, and still climbing. At 11 months of supply, buyers aren’t competing with each other. They’re taking their time, seeing multiple properties, and negotiating. The SP/LP ratio of 94% confirms that sellers who are transacting are doing so at a meaningful discount to list.
The jump in average days on market from 63 to 95 days is significant. February 2026 averaged 122 days — over four months from list to sale. Properties sitting that long accumulate a stigma that compounds the problem. Buyers see the days counter and wonder what’s wrong. In many cases nothing is wrong other than the price, but it creates friction regardless.
The rolling termination count of 307 deserves its own paragraph. Prior to 2024 the rolling annual figure was consistently under 25. We went from a market where almost everything listed eventually sold, to one where a very large share of listings are being pulled without transacting. That inventory doesn’t disappear — it waits and comes back as relists in subsequent quarters, adding to the perceived supply overhang.
“The sellers who price realistically from the start are the ones closing deals. Listings that start too high, sit, and get withdrawn come back with a handicap that compounds the problem.”
Live Forecaster →Residential Housing
Data covers Muskoka detached non-waterfront residential sales. Source: Habistat Analytics, multiple Ontario real estate boards.
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | 88 | 102 | ▲ +15.9% |
| New Listings | 250 | 250 | Flat |
| Avg Months of Inventory | 5.9 | 5.2 | ▼ –0.7 mo |
| Avg Days on Market | 46 | 57 | ▲ +11 days |
| Avg Sale-to-List Ratio | 97.2% | 95.8% | ▼ 1.4 pts |
| Avg Median Sale Price | $689,500 | $601,133 | ▼ 12.8% |
| Rolling 12-mo Sales | 621 | 664 | ▲ +6.9% |
| Rolling 12-mo Terminations | 217 | 473 | ▲ +118% |
Monthly Sales & New Listings
Q1 Median Sale Price Trend
Reading the Housing Data Carefully
The 16% sales increase in Q1 housing is the headline number, and it’s real — 102 sales versus 88 is a meaningful move. But a few things temper the optimism. Days on market climbed from 46 to 57. The SP/LP ratio softened from 97.2% to 95.8%. And the median sale price dropped significantly: $601,133 in Q1 2026 versus $689,500 in Q1 2025 — a decline of about 13%.
Some of that price decline reflects composition — what mix of properties closed in Q1. It doesn’t necessarily mean any individual home lost 13% of its value. But it does suggest that properties trading in Q1 2026 were generally at lower price points than a year ago, consistent with a market where affordability is driving decisions more than aspiration.
Muskoka’s residential market is being supported by buyers moving to the region permanently or semi-permanently — people whose decision is driven by lifestyle and necessity rather than pure discretion. That’s a meaningfully different buyer than the seasonal cottage purchaser, and it explains why the two segments are performing so differently right now.
Rolling 12-Month Sales — Waterfront vs Residential
Plotting both segments on a rolling 12-month basis makes the divergence clear. Residential sales have held up and are now moving higher. Waterfront sales have been essentially flat to declining since 2024.
Heading Into Q2
The spring selling season for Muskoka waterfront typically lifts off around the May long weekend. Between now and then, a few things will determine how 2026 plays out for both segments.
Previous Market Reports
Waterfront data covers Muskoka detached waterfront freehold sale transactions. Residential data covers Muskoka detached non-waterfront freehold sales. Both datasets compiled by Habistat Analytics from multiple Ontario real estate boards. Transaction volumes in Q1 are seasonally low; monthly price figures should be interpreted cautiously given small sample sizes. The 12-month rolling figures provide a more reliable directional signal. Termination counts cover MLS terminations and do not capture private withdrawals. Questions: [email protected] | 705.783.7718
Thinking About Buying or Selling?
This is the data we use in every client conversation. Give us a call — no pressure, just a straight talk about where the market actually sits and what that means for your situation.




