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Muskoka Real Estate | Q1 2026 Statistics for Homes & Cottages

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Muskoka Real Estate · Quarterly Report

Q1 2026
Market Report

A split picture to open the year. Waterfront cottage sales fell again while residential home sales moved higher. Both segments are seeing more cautious buyers and the tariff uncertainty that arrived in late January hasn’t helped.

Jan – Mar 2026 Muskoka Region Waterfront & Residential Source: Habistat Analytics
22 Waterfront Sales ▼ 12% vs Q1 ‘25
102 Home Sales ▲ 16% vs Q1 ‘25
17.5 WF Months Inv. Up from 14.4
5.2 Housing MOI Down from 5.9
95 WF Avg DOM Up from 63 days
57 Housing Avg DOM Up from 46 days
Overview

Two Markets, Two Very Different Stories

The first quarter of 2026 produced one of those splits that makes Muskoka real estate genuinely interesting to analyze. Waterfront cottages continued their prolonged correction with just 22 sales in three months — down 12% from an already slow Q1 2025, with months of inventory averaging 17.5 and properties sitting for 95 days on average.

Meanwhile, the residential housing market moved the other direction: 102 sales, up 16% year-over-year, with tighter inventory and buyers who are still transacting.

What explains the gap? A Muskoka home under $700,000 is a practical decision. People need to live somewhere and rate cuts help make the math work. A $1.5M waterfront cottage is a discretionary call, made with surplus capital and confidence about the future. When the economic outlook clouds over — as it did sharply in late January with the tariff situation — many discretionary buyers pause.

Waterfront signal
11.0 months of rolling inventory — the highest in this dataset and still climbing. At this level buyers are not competing. They are taking their time and negotiating.
Housing signal
Sales up 16% with flat new listings. MOI fell from 5.9 to 5.2. Practical buyers are still transacting, supported by 18 months of BoC rate cuts.
Terminations surge
Rolling 12-mo waterfront terminations: 307 vs a prior norm under 25. A large share of listings are being withdrawn without selling and returning as relists.
Tariff effect
Cottage buying is confidence-driven. The sharp drop in economic visibility through Feb 2026 visibly slowed discretionary buyer activity. Watch this into Q2.
Part One

Waterfront Cottages

Data covers Muskoka detached waterfront freehold sales. Source: Habistat Analytics, multiple Ontario real estate boards.

MetricQ1 2025Q1 2026Change
Total Sales2522▼ 12.0%
New Listings170149▼ 12.4%
Avg Months of Inventory14.417.5▲ +3.1 mo
Avg Days on Market6395▲ +32 days
Avg Sale-to-List Ratio97.6%94.0%▼ 3.6 pts
Rolling 12-mo MOI8.911.0▲ +2.1 mo
Rolling 12-mo Terminations113307▲ +172%
Metric Q1 '25 Q1 '26 Change
Total Sales 25 22 ▼ 12%
New Listings 170 149 ▼ 12%
Months of Inv. 14.4 17.5 ▲ +3.1
Avg DOM 63 95 ▲ +32d
SP/LP Ratio 97.6% 94.0% ▼ 3.6 pts
Rolling MOI (12mo) 8.9 11.0 ▲ +2.1
Terminations (12mo) 113 307 ▲ 172%

Q1 Monthly Sales & Listings

12-Month Rolling MOI

Q1 Days on Market vs Sale-to-List Ratio

What the Numbers Are Saying

Twenty-two sales in a quarter where the seasonal norm is already low is still a very slow number. The more telling figure is the 12-month rolling MOI hitting 11.0 — the highest point in this dataset, and still climbing. At 11 months of supply, buyers aren’t competing with each other. They’re taking their time, seeing multiple properties, and negotiating. The SP/LP ratio of 94% confirms that sellers who are transacting are doing so at a meaningful discount to list.

The jump in average days on market from 63 to 95 days is significant. February 2026 averaged 122 days — over four months from list to sale. Properties sitting that long accumulate a stigma that compounds the problem. Buyers see the days counter and wonder what’s wrong. In many cases nothing is wrong other than the price, but it creates friction regardless.

The rolling termination count of 307 deserves its own paragraph. Prior to 2024 the rolling annual figure was consistently under 25. We went from a market where almost everything listed eventually sold, to one where a very large share of listings are being pulled without transacting. That inventory doesn’t disappear — it waits and comes back as relists in subsequent quarters, adding to the perceived supply overhang.

“The sellers who price realistically from the start are the ones closing deals. Listings that start too high, sit, and get withdrawn come back with a handicap that compounds the problem.”

Live Forecaster →
Part Two

Residential Housing

Data covers Muskoka detached non-waterfront residential sales. Source: Habistat Analytics, multiple Ontario real estate boards.

MetricQ1 2025Q1 2026Change
Total Sales88102▲ +15.9%
New Listings250250Flat
Avg Months of Inventory5.95.2▼ –0.7 mo
Avg Days on Market4657▲ +11 days
Avg Sale-to-List Ratio97.2%95.8%▼ 1.4 pts
Avg Median Sale Price$689,500$601,133▼ 12.8%
Rolling 12-mo Sales621664▲ +6.9%
Rolling 12-mo Terminations217473▲ +118%
Metric Q1 '25 Q1 '26 Change
Total Sales 88 102 ▲ 16%
New Listings 250 250 Flat
Months of Inv. 5.9 5.2 ▼ −0.7
Avg DOM 46 57 ▲ +11d
SP/LP Ratio 97.2% 95.8% ▼ 1.4 pts
Median Sale Price $689k $601k ▼ 13%
Rolling Sales (12mo) 621 664 ▲ 7%
Terminations (12mo) 217 473 ▲ 118%

Monthly Sales & New Listings

Q1 Median Sale Price Trend

Reading the Housing Data Carefully

The 16% sales increase in Q1 housing is the headline number, and it’s real — 102 sales versus 88 is a meaningful move. But a few things temper the optimism. Days on market climbed from 46 to 57. The SP/LP ratio softened from 97.2% to 95.8%. And the median sale price dropped significantly: $601,133 in Q1 2026 versus $689,500 in Q1 2025 — a decline of about 13%.

Some of that price decline reflects composition — what mix of properties closed in Q1. It doesn’t necessarily mean any individual home lost 13% of its value. But it does suggest that properties trading in Q1 2026 were generally at lower price points than a year ago, consistent with a market where affordability is driving decisions more than aspiration.

Muskoka’s residential market is being supported by buyers moving to the region permanently or semi-permanently — people whose decision is driven by lifestyle and necessity rather than pure discretion. That’s a meaningfully different buyer than the seasonal cottage purchaser, and it explains why the two segments are performing so differently right now.

Combined View

Rolling 12-Month Sales — Waterfront vs Residential

Plotting both segments on a rolling 12-month basis makes the divergence clear. Residential sales have held up and are now moving higher. Waterfront sales have been essentially flat to declining since 2024.

Spring Outlook

Heading Into Q2

The spring selling season for Muskoka waterfront typically lifts off around the May long weekend. Between now and then, a few things will determine how 2026 plays out for both segments.

Waterfront Watch
Does the tariff situation resolve enough for discretionary buyers to re-engage?
If it does, the inventory is there, sellers are increasingly motivated, and some genuinely good properties have been sitting long enough that real negotiation is possible. If uncertainty compounds — more recession talk, more equity volatility — the Q1 pattern of hesitation is likely to continue into Q2.
Residential Watch
Sales are up and inventory is tighter — but price erosion needs watching.
The main watch point is the SP/LP erosion and the median price softening. If those continue, it suggests the market is still in a price-discovery phase where sellers haven’t fully caught up to where buyers are willing to transact.
Applies to both segments
Pricing from day one matters more than it has in years.
The data on terminations makes this point forcefully. Listings that start too high, sit, and then get withdrawn aren’t just wasted time — they come back with a handicap, carrying the days-on-market history that triggers buyer skepticism. The sellers who price realistically from the start are the ones closing deals.
Report Archive

Previous Market Reports

Waterfront data covers Muskoka detached waterfront freehold sale transactions. Residential data covers Muskoka detached non-waterfront freehold sales. Both datasets compiled by Habistat Analytics from multiple Ontario real estate boards. Transaction volumes in Q1 are seasonally low; monthly price figures should be interpreted cautiously given small sample sizes. The 12-month rolling figures provide a more reliable directional signal. Termination counts cover MLS terminations and do not capture private withdrawals. Questions: [email protected]  |  705.783.7718

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