Haliburton & Kawartha Cottage Market | 2026 Review & Outlook

What 2026 looked like

Sales held about steady. 413 waterfront cottages sold across Haliburton and Kawartha Lakes from January to September, down 2.8% on last year’s 425. Haliburton slipped 1.7% to 229, and Kawartha Lakes 4.2% to 184.

The longer view is weaker. Through an eight year lens, which includes the covid-era madness, we’re running 13.8% below normal, and 14.1% below 2018 and 2019.

About $382 million in cottages changed hands from January to September, almost exactly the same as last year.

The real story is supply. Active listings averaged 331 from January to September, up 9.9% on last year and 87% above the 8-year average. In July there were 487 cottages for sale across the two regions, the most in any month since 2018.

New listings, at 1,239, were down slightly on 2025’s 1,268, but still 30% above the 8-year average. Sellers aren’t listing faster than last year; the problem is that cottages already on the market aren’t selling.

Months of inventory is 7.2 this year, up from 6.4 and about double the long-term average of 3.6. That’s the highest since 2018.

The absorption rate shows it. About 14% of the cottages on the market sold each month, roughly 1 in 7. In 2018 and 2019 it was about 24%, or 1 in 4.

What I see for 2027

The headwinds I described for Muskoka apply here too. The uncertainty tied to the United States is still the biggest weight on the market, and I don’t expect a meaningful change in direction while the current administration is in power. Interest rates are now going the wrong way too: the Bank of Canada raised its rate on October 28.

Terminations tell you where the pressure is. Across both regions, 330 listings came off the market unsold from January to September, down 4.1% on last year. But the two regions are very different. In Kawartha Lakes, 221 listings were pulled against 184 sales: 120 for every 100 sales, up from 111. In Haliburton it was 48 for every 100 sales, down from 56.

It’s no coincidence that Kawartha Lakes is also where prices fell. Sellers who couldn’t get their price pulled their cottages, and many of them will be back in the spring.

I expect inventory to remain historically high next year, and prices to drop 5-10%. The balance between supply and demand is pushing it that way.

Prices tell two different stories. In Haliburton, the median averaged $806K from January to September, up 5.0% on 2025. In Kawartha Lakes it averaged $815K, down 14.1%. Over the last 12 months, Haliburton is up 4.4% and Kawartha Lakes down 9.8%.

Both are still well below their 2022 peaks: Haliburton by about a quarter, and Kawartha Lakes by about 17%.

A word of caution: both are small markets, with fewer than 100 sales a month even at the peak of summer, so a handful of large sales can move the median. Haliburton recorded no sales at all in January.

Sellers are getting 95.9% of asking, about the same as last year, and cottages are selling a little faster: a median of 31 days, down from 35.

The Market Headwinds Going Into 2027

Here is what I’m watching.

The U.S. trade dispute. Still the biggest weight on the market. Canadian consumer confidence was 47.3 in September, below its 2010 to 2026 average of 51.4, and foreign buyers still face the 25% NRST that has applied across Ontario since October 2022.

Record supply. Active listings and months of inventory are the highest since 2018. With sales flat, it will take time for buyers to work through it.

Unsold listings returning. 330 listings came off the market unsold from January to September, and in Kawartha Lakes they outnumbered sales. Many of them will come back in the spring, often at lower prices.

Rates, prices and jobs. The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.5% on October 28, its first increase since 2023, and warned that more hikes could follow. Its next decision is December 9. The hike pushes variable mortgage rates up right away. The 5-year bond yield, which sets fixed mortgage pricing, was 3.60% on October 2, close to its 52-week high of 3.71%. Inflation was 3.1% in September (2.2% excluding gasoline), driven by a 27.8% jump in gas prices, and Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, with unemployment up to 6.5%.

Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada (CPI and Labour Force Survey), Ipsos consumer confidence and Habistat. Rates and yields as of the dates shown.